CURACAO ELECTIONS RESULT IN ANOTHER COALITION GOVERNMENT AS PREDICTED
By JJosepha News
Twitter.com/JJosephaNews
Willemstad, Curacao. Wednesday’s general elections in Curacao produced yet another fragmented parliament that will require a new coalition to be negotiated from among the eight parties successful in gaining one or more seats to form the next government.
The successful parties gaining representation in the 21-seat Staten van Curacao third session (SVC-3) were as follows in Table 1.01.
Table 1.01 List of qualifying political parties
A large percentage of those surveyed in the Caribbean News Now pre-election polling expressed serious concern and questioned the rule of law in Curacao, accountability and transparency of the executive, legislative and judicial branch, because of the apparent feeling that everyone should be treated the same, no matter who you are and what position you hold.
However, earlier this year, former prime minister Gerrit Schotte, the leader of MFK, was convicted on several counts of fraud and money laundering, and the most popular question in Curacao is how was Schotte able to participate in the elections if he was found guilty on all counts and received an imposed term of five years removal from all politics in Curacao.
Some political pundits in Curacao are raising an eyebrow as to why the 2016 election commissioner allowed Schotte’s participation.
A greater question weighs on the minds of those in political circles, namely, if Schotte forms the government, the coalition could or may pardon his crime and conviction.
Tables 1.02, Table 2.01 and Table 2.02 all illustrate the complex meta-psychosocial relationship included in the art of negotiating trades and deals in the formation of a coalition government in Curacao.
Table 1.02 indicates a direct proportionality to the components of forming a coalition government in Curacao
Basically, as the value of the horizontal rows ψ; psi, increases, so too does the prime factors of flexibility vs. political cooperation. The title of the political parties abbreviations in red running from left-right horizontally indicate “The Negotiating Party”; “The Actors”, whereas those in black arranged vertically top-down indicate the party negotiating with “The Reactors”.
It is important to mention here that negotiations are a dynamic process and can change polarity.
As this relates to the vertical columns, the light blue cells, ψ; psi, is inversely proportional to the actor, hence the lower the number, the greater and more leverage the Actor has in the negotiating process. Therefore as explained earlier from the indications of the importance of the political party MAN, they have a controlling hand if they act quickly and swiftly, the longer this lingers the greater the chances are that other major or minor political parties may cut deals in their best interest.
Coalition governments in Curacao have proven to be less focused and beneficial to the well being of the constituents/the voting populace as compared to individual politicians and the desire to maintain control and power.
In Table 2.01 this is a top-down vertical column application in understanding the leveraging power to negotiating and forming a Curacao coalition government. In this case it is important to pay attention to dark red five significant figure value to the far right, (2.3036 in Table 2.01 and 2.25 in Table 2.02) which is the standardized values in flexibility and cooperation to forming a coalition government respectively.
Therefore, the number in the lilac in Table 2.01, as it becomes increasingly less or lower the value in comparison, then the greater the leverage, and the greater value in comparison to the standardization the less leverage and power in negotiating a coalition government.
A particular stand-out point noted that in Table 2.02, the light blue highlighted area of a vertical column is the inability of PS to apparently form a coalition government and the slight possibility of MFK negotiations to control SVC-3.
From the tables it demonstrates that Schotte may have gained almost 16% of the popular vote; however, he may have a difficult time to form the government, especially when other leaders considers their fate could be the same as Alex Rosaria and the political party PAIS.
KdNT and Dos Santos is heavily polarized to Schotte and MFK; however, as demonstrated from Table 1.01, he may be more willing to cooperate and become more flexible. However, the trust factor in good faith is equivalent to the fact of honouring the agreement of the coalition and this maybe a negative point in KDNT negotiations to forming a coalition government.
However, Schotte’s complete dependency is on KdNT making deals with the other sub-parties and minor parties in order to possible gain control of the government. That may be a difficult task but not an impossible one for the KdNT-MFK coalition.
While the KdNT party is believed to be closely aligned with Schotte and the MFK, between them they only account for seven seats, four short of a governing majority. It is extremely doubtful in the circumstances that Schotte could enlist the cooperation of other parties in order to form a new government.
The more likely move is for PAR to coalesce with MAN – a total of eight seats – and try to bring on board at least two of the other four parties. PAR and MAN are very capable of forming a coalition government that would stifle any other challenges.
All other minor political parties and sub-political parties have at best an accessory role.
Stay tuned…
The successful parties gaining representation in the 21-seat Staten van Curacao third session (SVC-3) were as follows in Table 1.01.
A large percentage of those surveyed in the Caribbean News Now pre-election polling expressed serious concern and questioned the rule of law in Curacao, accountability and transparency of the executive, legislative and judicial branch, because of the apparent feeling that everyone should be treated the same, no matter who you are and what position you hold.
However, earlier this year, former prime minister Gerrit Schotte, the leader of MFK, was convicted on several counts of fraud and money laundering, and the most popular question in Curacao is how was Schotte able to participate in the elections if he was found guilty on all counts and received an imposed term of five years removal from all politics in Curacao.
Some political pundits in Curacao are raising an eyebrow as to why the 2016 election commissioner allowed Schotte’s participation.
A greater question weighs on the minds of those in political circles, namely, if Schotte forms the government, the coalition could or may pardon his crime and conviction.
Tables 1.02, Table 2.01 and Table 2.02 all illustrate the complex meta-psychosocial relationship included in the art of negotiating trades and deals in the formation of a coalition government in Curacao.
Basically, as the value of the horizontal rows ψ; psi, increases, so too does the prime factors of flexibility vs. political cooperation. The title of the political parties abbreviations in red running from left-right horizontally indicate “The Negotiating Party”; “The Actors”, whereas those in black arranged vertically top-down indicate the party negotiating with “The Reactors”.
It is important to mention here that negotiations are a dynamic process and can change polarity.
As this relates to the vertical columns, the light blue cells, ψ; psi, is inversely proportional to the actor, hence the lower the number, the greater and more leverage the Actor has in the negotiating process. Therefore as explained earlier from the indications of the importance of the political party MAN, they have a controlling hand if they act quickly and swiftly, the longer this lingers the greater the chances are that other major or minor political parties may cut deals in their best interest.
Coalition governments in Curacao have proven to be less focused and beneficial to the well being of the constituents/the voting populace as compared to individual politicians and the desire to maintain control and power.
In Table 2.01 this is a top-down vertical column application in understanding the leveraging power to negotiating and forming a Curacao coalition government. In this case it is important to pay attention to dark red five significant figure value to the far right, (2.3036 in Table 2.01 and 2.25 in Table 2.02) which is the standardized values in flexibility and cooperation to forming a coalition government respectively.
Therefore, the number in the lilac in Table 2.01, as it becomes increasingly less or lower the value in comparison, then the greater the leverage, and the greater value in comparison to the standardization the less leverage and power in negotiating a coalition government.
A particular stand-out point noted that in Table 2.02, the light blue highlighted area of a vertical column is the inability of PS to apparently form a coalition government and the slight possibility of MFK negotiations to control SVC-3.
KdNT and Dos Santos is heavily polarized to Schotte and MFK; however, as demonstrated from Table 1.01, he may be more willing to cooperate and become more flexible. However, the trust factor in good faith is equivalent to the fact of honouring the agreement of the coalition and this maybe a negative point in KDNT negotiations to forming a coalition government.
However, Schotte’s complete dependency is on KdNT making deals with the other sub-parties and minor parties in order to possible gain control of the government. That may be a difficult task but not an impossible one for the KdNT-MFK coalition.
While the KdNT party is believed to be closely aligned with Schotte and the MFK, between them they only account for seven seats, four short of a governing majority. It is extremely doubtful in the circumstances that Schotte could enlist the cooperation of other parties in order to form a new government.
The more likely move is for PAR to coalesce with MAN – a total of eight seats – and try to bring on board at least two of the other four parties. PAR and MAN are very capable of forming a coalition government that would stifle any other challenges.
All other minor political parties and sub-political parties have at best an accessory role.
Stay tuned…
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