ELECTORAL ANALYSIS PREDICTS WHY MADURO WILL WIN VENEZUELAN ELECTIONS

COMMENTARY: ELECTORAL ANALYSIS PREDICTS WHY MADURO WILL WIN VENEZUELAN ELECTIONS

May 20, 2018

Josefina Josepha enjoys reading and studying, photography, psychology, writing and listening to music, and at times some freelance writing trying to help others and improve herself. She believes in equality, fairness and justice above reproach. Her true loves are medicine, public health care management, and entrepreneurial science.

By Josefina Josepha

Venezuela’s 2018 presidential election is slated for Sunday, May 20, 2018, across the 23-plus Venezuelan states. With an estimated 65 percent of Venezuela’s recorded 32 million population of voting age and in a low voter turnout of about 60 percent and less than 1.5 percent invalid votes, Maduro’s Base Vote (BV) at a minimum of about 80 percent that would account for approximately 42 percent, which is equivalent to 1 in every 3 votes cast.

Additionally, Maduro’s Favor-ability Vote (FV) would equate to about 1 out of every odd 6 votes cast of those “estudential” and “universitarios” for youths under 27 years, additionally Maduro’s Influence-ability Vote (IV) from the elderly fraction would sum in and added 2 in every 7 votes cast, which totals to a minimum of 56.3 percent of Venezuela’s 2018 presidential election favoring Nicolás Maduro to maintain Presidential control of the oil rich South American nation.

With a greater Venezuelan voter turnout the direct proportionality could hit more than 73 percent overall landslide plurality victory for PSUV party if all contributing factors align in the Maduro’s movement.

Venezuela’s 2018 presidential race was scheduled to be called earlier than expected and then postponed from April to late May 2018. The field, which was labeled with many, was narrowed to five until early May to just four candidates, President Nicolás Maduro Moros of PSUV; Henri Falcón Fuentes of The Progressive Advance Party, who was a former governor of Lara and former member of PSUV; Javier Alejandro Bertucci Carrero; an Independent candidate who is an evangelical pastor and businessman; Reinaldo Jose Quijada Cervoni, presidential candidate from UPP 89, who is an engineer.

Contributors to Maduro’s Presidential Win

A. Apparent North American (US and Canada) influencers

The philosophy of back a tiger in a corner too far and the claws will come out, rightly describes the break-point for Venezuela’s political pressure cooker. However, like Comandante Fidel Castro Ruz, Maduro has made many strategic maneuvers that seem to always keep him and his country’s head above the survival waterline.

The ConocoPhillips case from the early years of the two-thousand's judgement coming at an inopportune election time, Isla Refinery’s renting to PDVSA and the constant barrage of the Curasaleno employees leveraging for more pay more than likely influence by American/Dutch whispering at the labor level.

Then again, there are the mega rich US corporations that have been operating in Venezuela for a long period of time, for example; such as Kellogg’s, which was among the last set of US mega corporations to pull out their operations and leaving more than 500 workers apparently out of a job. This, in most other countries, would have had a disastrous effect on the voting population except for Venezuela’s second millennium labor laws, which could have the Venezuelans completely in charge of another corporate entity.

B. The boy that cried wolf philosophy

All the world was a stage, as the major news media cast their ballots on the Venezuelan situation and especially those in Curacao, like Curacao Chronicle and Curacao’s TV Direct station; apparently filled the air, inciting “brain dead can’t-think-for-myself” mentality that there was a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. Even the Curacao leaders cried to the Netherlands in an effect to offer humanitarian aid to its next door neighbor which was suffering a “humanitarian crisis”. The Venezuelan exodus was part of a necessary need to possible force the hands of those wishing to change the populous contention of leadership.

If timed correctly those intentions would have had maximum effect on the 2018 Venezuelan presidential elections with an overpowering dethronement of Maduro from the helm. However, the 2014 oil price stifle, the limitation on refinancing and resources brushed Maduro’s Venezuela social program that entwined India as well as China, which were under US pressure; coupled with Hillary Clinton demonizing Russia, paved a solid pathway for the oil rich countries of Russia, Iran and Venezuela to forge a greater common interest.

Hence we get a bigger understanding of US President Trump’s foreign policy on Iran deal, Israeli Middle East peace solution with the establishment of the US embassy in Jerusalem. Pressure on China and activity in the South China Sea along with the integrated Asian approach of China and South Korea (remember Trump’s first call to South Korea after winning the US presidential election – so was he planning this strategy from that point? No one knows yet) helps with North Korea denuclearization.

However; Kim Jong Un maybe thinking of the error of previous leaders like the late Libyan leader; Muammar Mohammed Abu Minyar Gaddafi aka “Colonel Gaddafi”, after he agree to US terms with denuclearization, US Ambassador John Bolton cleared it up, things did not end to well for him. But; the North Korean leader’s situation is a Catch-22; “Damn if you do and damn if you don’t”. Because the US president has shown that he does not fall in love with the deal and is not afraid to walk away such as the Asian agreement, Trump and his negotiation tactics with the Paris Agreement and climate change and now the Iran deal.

For Venezuela all of these international political shuffling have a deep impact, because it pressures Venezuela’s diplomatic policy and national governance, which is in part due to NATO’s chief sponsor effect on apparently maintaining the Caribbean under NATO’s rule, so that means no independence discussion for the Dutch colonies, American colonies, French and British colonies because it keeps Venezuela under control with a paramount force able to strategize military response in the time it takes for Venezuela’s Russian made Sukhoi Su-30 and US made F-16 Fighting Falcon to cross international borders.

Therefore for the US to effectively establish some control, Venezuela and Brazil are important for alliance agreement. Maduro and his table of wise counsel have warned US that to destabilize Venezuela in the form like what has happened in the Middle East would be detrimental for the entire Caribbean basin and therefore the better political hand that the USA has to “play” is a peaceful change in government. However, 2018 is shaping out to be like US-Cuba’s Bay of the Pigs scenario, which fortified a young communist lawyer to rule over Cuba for an unprecedented time.

Now the Venezuela-Cuba relationship is built on the Castro-Chavez ideology and the new president of the PCC has made his visit to Maduro and the medical expertise and manpower to attend to the population had stepped up to overdrive. Hence, with an aging and ailing population catered to by a once and still very large Cuban doctor “vertebrate”, the view of better days for Venezuelans appear to be around the corner.

This Venezuela situation; also lands us into the debate of truly understanding humanitarian crises, humanitarian emergency and humanitarian catastrophe and the state of Venezuela and the assumes propaganda puppeteer-ism of apparently some of the large news media agencies and even those smaller news media agencies under the psychotic power of the almighty US dollar, bliss or ignorance. But this is the result of “monkey see-monkey do” mentality.

As a recent graduate of John Hopkins Course on Public Health in Humanitarian Crisis with Dr Mija-tesse Ververs, Emergency Response and Recovery Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Atlanta, and Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, along with Dr Paul Spiegel and Dr Gilbert Burnham of John Hopkins University. I was able to uniquely able to identify and debate and discuss my personal perspective of the Venezuelan exodus and it led me to two points:

Firstly, to somewhat and dry hardheartedly agree with Guyana’s perspective up to a critical point on the border control with Venezuela, but there is a rich history between Guyana and Venezuela and of the time when people from Guyana sought refuge in Venezuela and as a matter of fact some of them are still living there today and being taken care of by the Venezuelan government

JJ empirical refugee national admittance coefficient of Venezuela to its immediate neighbors

Secondly, if we consider the migration of mega island states and develop or developing countries against micro-island states with micro-economies we quickly recognize the juxtaposition of Venezuelan-Dutch Caribbean border control and importance to sovereignty or autonomy and the right to govern without due interference of other countries. Then this raises the question that should not Venezuela be allowed and given the same respect to govern its own future?

In terms of how Venezuela situation can impact Curacao and its surrounding neighbors is very reflective of the socio-politico-economic stability versus patriotism. Graph 1.0 is an analysis of Venezuela and its neighbors with comparative GDP per capita and Graph 2.0 is an interpretative analysis of Venezuela and its immediate neighbors with respective to comparative GDP (PPP) per capita differential where once we have an understanding of the respective estimated Gini coefficient as seen in Graph 3.0

Therefore Table 1.0 JJ’s empirical rule of national refugee admittance can be created and graphed; as in Graph 2.1 the Analysis of Venezuela and its neighbors with comparative factorial population density and understanding JJ Empirical Refugee national admittance coefficient, which comparatively to the exiting and entry country should be positive for a positive entry.

This would be the case in standards of Humanitarian Emergency and even at some beginning levels of humanitarian crises determined by the BER (Basic Efficient Requirement) value. Hence, according to JJ empirical refugee national admittance coefficient, Colombia and Brazil would be Venezuela’s most able, capable and prepared to deal with a mass cross border displacement in view of asylum seekers and refugees.

The reality is that in situations where cross border displacements and mass migration or exodus occurs in countries and island states that have a have a negative JJ empirical refugee national admittance coefficient, that is the neighboring country falls below the BER, then the cross border displaced individuals or mass migrants would have a greater tendency to exhibit damaging coping mechanisms inherent of a different spectrum of slavery mentality, especially under a higher than average Gini Coefficient country as Curacao, which leads both migrant men and women into forced or influenced prostitution, human trafficking, petty crime as well as organized crime in the scenario of Venezuela-Curacao exodus is predicted to have an expected detrimental effect on the Curasaleno families, culture and society.

According to former Venezuelan presidential candidate, Henry Capriles, Venezuela had three of its cities rated in the World’s top ten most dangerous cities in the world and by size alone Curacao’s population is equivalent to that for every Curasaleno there are 200 Venezuelans.

Furthermore; the graph 4.0 below; illustrates the expression and interpretation of different types of slavery committed by various sectors in Curacao. This graph looks at the spectrum of slavery; including mental slavery (MNL), physical slavery (PHY), emotional slavery (EML), economical and financial slavery (EAF), spiritual slavery (SPT), social slavery (SOC), and political slavery (POL), across the various Curasaleno sectors, including those living in Curacao [Caucasians] Dutch (KDU); and [Caucasians] non-Dutch (KND), Afro-Curasalenos and African heritage-descendancy (AFR), Latin Americans (LAM), Asians (ASN) and Indians (IND).

The interesting observation was the parallel nature of the trend line of the log of the slavery induced Curacao coefficient (Log SICK) in demonstrating the most likely culprits abusing and these hard core facts must be looked at from the perspective of better and greater laws that protect the weak and defend the abused and therefore any form or spectrum of slavery is a form of abuse!

Now what can be deduced from all of this in simple terms; since the cross border migration of Venezuela-Curacao, crime is on a non-downward spiral, illegal prostitution is on an exponential rise, which has a significant family and social impact affecting the most obvious of socio-econo-psychological childhood development. However, from a national perspective there is political leveraging and tolerance; which gives way to a greater tendency towards corruption.

Secondly; loss in Curacao tax dollars from illegal employment and unemployment and more spending per capita in healthcare dollars, as mosquito borne illness raises, “Diabetes Type 3” spirals upwards and Diabetes Type 2 reaches national alarming rates and the subsequent cardiovascular and renal disease skyrocketing. In addition; the direct effect of EBV (Epstein-Barr virus aka human herpes virus 4 infection as a direct consequence of illegal male or female prostitution.

C. Venezuelan leadership of Contra/Anti-Chavista attitude

From a diagnostic perspective it seems like the opposition was working with Maduro’s game plan for re-election like the famous no win lottery (NWL) philosophy; “if you play the lottery at least you have a one in a million chance of winning, as opposed to not playing at all and therefore you have NO chance of winning”, or the whiny spoiled brat child; (WSBC) mentality of throwing a fit and trying to hold their breath until their parents pay attention and give in to their childish tyrants.

However, what is more disappointing on a global scale again is mentality that because something is unfair then you as a political party will not participate and that the international community leaders want to call to stop elections in a country that they do not rule or govern nor are they citizens; forgetting that every country has a right to govern and direct the affairs of their own future. Furthermore; those political parties that is or are not participating because their political party feels it is unfair or unconstitutional.

There is only one advice here, and that is to grow up politically; and return to the drawing board; the voice of the people to find out; why do they as leaders feel they can better serve the country and their people free from corruption and abuse, free from tyranny and dictatorship.

On the other hand; there are leaders who want to participate in the 2018 Venezuelan presidential race, but constitutionally or administratively can not because they have disqualified themselves due to inappropriate behavior or irresponsible management when leaders within the country.

In this scenario, the best advice is introspective analysis and to continue with strength and a determination to help the people and the country, but with regard to imposed sanctions with limits and restrictions. In poker terminology; “try and play the best you can with the hand that you have been dealt”.

It is sad that the Venezuelan leaders in opposition were not able to coalesce and join forces to present a one united front for the good of the people in a “yes or no” political spectrum, instead of splitting the votes, in which case politically none stands a viable means to 50 percent plus one majority.

D. Venezuelan leadership of Chavista attitude: The Maduro Movement

Maduro’s political strategy is a “Reflex Maduro-Castrology”; in international politics where the chess movements seemed to include:

I. Revising his country’s social model along with its economic and financial profile to create a greater cushion in debt relief and national deficit. This seems to be particularly attractive to the younger generation of the voting pool.

II. Maintaining the Chavezistic rule of “help thy neighbors”. However, Venezuela must help itself during the process. Venezuelans remember the past and the hardships, and for that reason; a large majority still appreciate the former leader, Hugo Chavez’s efforts. This is particularly relevant to the older Venezuelans, who will cast their votes on that basis and their increased payments that Maduro spoke of.

III. Allowing those “anti-Maduro-ists” to leave by the thousands and tens of thousands from Venezuela to the nearby Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Curacao (especially) and Bonaire, also Guyana, Colombia, Brazil and even Ecuador, and yet still others to “The Land of the American Dream” – the United States of America and Canada. This was a point of patriotism and honor over personal financial gains.

Therefore; in the wake that it was clearly a point that Venezuela may have been suffering a humanitarian emergency; however, a humanitarian crisis was far-fetched! Maybe this was for the international policing authorities to be able to roll into Venezuela and take over by force that which could not be done by diplomacy, and sanctions.

In retrospect, to Curacao, on most any odd given day you can also find some person rummaging through the garbage looking for food ( for example in Punda or Otrobanda), however, is Curacao under a humanitarian crisis because of food shortage, due to the imposed recent “unilateral Venezuela embargo”?

Obviously, not! However; some months ago a former Curacao parliamentarian, aka “Pink Flamingo”, boastfully churned the Venezuelan president that this situation which he was trying to create of undue hardship for Curacao would backfire, just like the 1815 declaration that he referred to. Unfortunately, it seemed that Maduro might have known that the “Pink Flamingo” may have known absolutely nothing about what he was writing about.

In research it seemed like the old Chinese proverb: “It is better to keep quiet and let people think that you are a fool, as oppose to opening your mouth and then proving to people that you are a fool.” As a clarification what happened between Venezuela vs. Curacao in early 2018/late 2017; was compared to, in a time where the “mighty” USA along with Netherlands in collaboration with the United Kingdom forced matters for a “more peaceful” resolution.

But it was Curacao that depended on the Netherlands to make that decision that depended on the United States of America with favorable United Kingdom support, that affected the course of time and economics in the Caribbean and Venezuela history, because Venezuela bounced back and rebounded harder and higher, much like it had done in history.

Therefore, there is one certainty that after the presidential elections Venezuela will probably be in a very good state of bouncing back, according to history. If Maduro is able to capitalize on his movement, hyperinflation would curtail; over the next seven years to create a very robust Venezuelan economy, the oil price warfare is on its finishing leg from its 2014 initiative, the Cuban post-Castro movement will have a more beneficial impact with continued assistance in human resource and management in the medical and computer information science field, Venezuela’s digital cryptocurrency; removing the middle-man, and sanctions to stifle the nation’s growth, development and progress would take a back seat in a move to some compliance efforts in the name of democracy and not totalitarianism, authoritarianism or “oligarchic” one political party communism.

What can Maduro do to recapture the international community support?

The sovereignty of any nation should be respected as though the Universal Declaration of Human Rights for every individual just like that for a country’s right to govern independently in favor of its citizens with respect to its international neighbors. Hence; President Maduro can simply:

• Ensure that a referendum is called to decide matters on the constitution and let the will of the people be expressed, old constitution vs. “proposed new constitution”, hence enabling its citizen to make an informed and educated decision after lively discussions, debates and educational forums.

• Release the political prisoners with a pardon for political participation

• Release and pardon the sentence of the political leaders, hence allowing them a “three strike rule” of conduct for a successful transition for EU-democracy.

• Determine if a state of emergency (SOE) still exists and, if it has not been declared yet, to declare that a state of emergency is over, regardless of the outcome of the 2018 presidential elections, win by a little or a landslide.

• Open the news media up in a balanced, fair approach that allows for balance and contra-balance approach and perspective for the televised broadcast stations, and newspapers, and as a result review the laws for corporate responsibility, defamation and libel suits, and “fake news” reporting.

• Allowing for an independent Commission of Inquiry with a 18-month term to investigate the said activities of the Maduro regime and the governmental, juridical and legislature of Venezuela.

Failure to complete less than 4 of the 6 option listed above, within the first quarter after being sworn in and voted on by a majority in a free electoral process, may see Maduro's control and confidence challenged and that may be the political apoptosis of Maduro's Venezuelan presidency

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